daily check
· The SBP adopts a cautious approach to monetary policy to ensure sustainable economic growth and reduces the policy rate by 100bps to 12%, against our expectation of a 200bps cut. · On a positive note, the SBP revises downward its inflation forecast to a range of 5.5% to 7.5%, with the revised current account assumption expected to be in the range of a surplus of 0.5% to a deficit of 0.5% of GDP for FY25. · We expect SBP to reduce interest rates by 250bps to 9.5% during the remainder of CY25 with most of the easing in 1H. SBP adopts cautious approach for 100bps cut: SBP monetary policy committee cautiously approached monetary policy to ensure sustainable economic growth and cut policy rate by 100bps to 12%, against our expectation of 200bps. This decision is based on continuous disinflationary trend driven by moderate domestic demand and supportive supply side dynamics. However, core inflation is still at an elevated level and impact of 1,000bps cut in policy rate ...