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Pakistan is at a pivotal moment in determining the direction of its exchange rate. While the rupee has long been associated with inflationary spikes whenever devalued, the present macroeconomic context signals a limited inflationary transmission from PKR depreciation. Since domestic food prices have already adjusted by 26.5% beyond global benchmark, the scope for additional inflationary pressure from depreciation remains limited. In this environment, a carefully managed depreciation of the rupee could support export competitiveness, attract higher remittance inflows, and strengthen the external account, offering a strategic opportunity to devalue the currency without immediately destabilizing prices. Muted food shock risk Domestic food inflation is already running well above the global index nearly 26.5% higher with a weight of 34.6% in the overall CPI basket. This elevated base reduces the risk of a sharp surge in prices from currency depreciation. In addition, food prices...