daily check

China, KSA, UAE briefed about economy
Federal Minister for Finance and Revenue Senator Muhammad Aurangzeb has met with the UAE Minister of State for Financial Affairs Mohamed bin Hadi Al Hussaini, Saudi Minister of Finance Mohammed Aljadaan and Finance Minister of China Lan Fo’an in Washington DC on the sidelines of IMF-World Bank Spring meetings.

Aurangzeb during a meeting with President of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) Jin Liqun discussed banks financing for ongoing and future development projects in Pakistan and expressed the government’s desire to proceed with the inaugural issuance of Panda Bond within the current calendar year.

According to press release issued by finance ministry on Thursday, the meeting was held on the sidelines of the IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington, D.C.

Aurangzeb highlights Panda, ESG bonds in key meetings at Washington: Finance Division

Aurangzeb thanked the AIIB for its longstanding support for Pakistan’s socio-economic development. He also conveyed Pakistan’s keenness to sustain the current momentum of engagement with the Bank. Meanwhile, during a meeting with, Minister of State for Financial Affairs, United Arab Emirates, Mohamed Bin Hadi Al Hussaini, the minister briefed him on Pakistan’s economic indicators, the recent sovereign rating upgrade by Fitch, and the privatization agenda of the government.

He informed that a Staff-Level Agreement (SLA) had been reached on the first review under Pakistan’s Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and a new arrangement under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF).

He appreciated the investment appetite of UAE investors at both G2G and B2B levels and emphasized the importance of translating MoUs into concrete agreements. He also expressed interest in learning from the UAE’s experience in regulating cryptocurrency.

The Minister extended an invitation to HE Mohamed Bin Hadi Al Hussaini to visit Pakistan.

In a meeting with Saudi Minister of Finance Mohammed Aljadaan, Aurangzeb thanked him for Saudi Arabia’s longstanding and strong support to Pakistan in its pursuit of economic development, including through support for the IMF programme.

He welcomed Saudi investments in Pakistan and reaffirmed the government’s resolve to stay the course on reforms. He also extended an invitation to Aljadaan to visit Pakistan.

During a meeting with Finance Minister of China Lan Fo’an, the minister recalled their last meeting held in Beijing in July 2024 and thanked the government of China for its unwavering support for Pakistan’s socio-economic development and for its strong backing of Pakistan’s economic reform programme supported by the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) of the IMF.

He briefed the Chinese side on the key reforms being undertaken in the areas of taxation, energy, privatization, public finance, and state-owned enterprises (SOEs). The Minister also provided an update on the status of the Panda Bond and requested the support of the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) to fast-track the issuance process.

He extending a cordial invitation to the Chinese Finance Minister to visit Pakistan, the press release added.

Likewise, in a meeting with President Global Policy and Advocacy of the Gates Foundation, Gargee Gosh, the finance minister appreciated the Gates Foundation’s continued support for Pakistan’s polio eradication efforts, maternal and child health and nutrition initiatives, family planning services, and vaccine delivery and immunization programs.

He lauded the Foundation’s collaboration with the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) in introducing tax system digitalization to transform it into a digital tax administration. The discussions also included the integration of Buna and Raast payment platforms to promote seamless regional payments.

The minister requested the Foundation to continue its support for Pakistan’s polio eradication initiative and extended an invitation for participation in the upcoming awareness event on May 7, 2025, for the launch of Pakistan’s national hepatitis C elimination programme.

Protectionist US tariffs pose risk to country: SBP
Protectionist policies stemming from steep new US tariffs and their associated impacts on global economic growth may pose challenges for Pakistan’s economy, the central bank said on Thursday.

The State Bank of Pakistan’s Financial Stability Review 2024 said that the global environment presents a mixed picture for the domestic economy. Global commodity prices are trending down, and major central banks in advanced economies, excluding the Federal Reserve, continue to lower key interest rates. “Nonetheless, a change in trade policy by the US may have implications for the Fed’s monetary policy as well as global financial conditions. Moreover, the resultant shift towards protectionist policies by other major economies may adversely affect global growth prospects, bearing repercussions for Pakistan’s economy as well,” it added.

“It deserves an emphasis that although the domestic economy is steadily on a recovery path, sustaining the recovery, which hinges on continued progress on structural reforms, is crucial to build external buffers and reduce external financing risks,” the SBP said in the report.

It said that the results of the latest stress testing assessment of the banking sector revealed that the sector is expected to remain resilient to various severe, hypothetical, but plausible shocks over the projected horizon of three years and is expected to maintain its compliance with minimum capital adequacy requirements.

Financial sector remains financially and operationally resilient

The report highlighted that macroeconomic conditions improved considerably last year, as reflected by receding inflationary pressures and consequent significant monetary easing, fiscal consolidation, stable rupee-dollar parity, pick-up in economic activity and improved external account balance. In this backdrop, the financial sector, growing at a decent pace of 17.8 per cent, maintained its operational and financial resilience during 2024.

Amid a turnaround in the macroeconomic environment, volatility in financial markets subsided. The banking sector exhibited steady performance and maintained its financial soundness. The balance sheet of the banks expanded by 15.8 per cent in 2024.

According to the report, the expansion in banks’ assets was driven by both investment and advances. Private sector advances witnessed a strong rebound due to a revival in economic activity, easing in monetary policy and advances-to-deposit ratio (ADR) linked tax policy for income from government securities. This tax policy also dampened the deposit mobilisation, which further increased the banks’ reliance on borrowings.

The current level of credit risk of the banking sector also remained within a comfortable range, as the non-performing loans (NPLs) to gross loans ratio fell to 6.3 per cent in December 2024 from 7.6 per cent in December 2023.

The provisioning coverage further improved amid the implementation of IFRS-9, with allowances and provisions held for loan losses exceeding the stock of outstanding NPLs, indicating a minimal net credit risk to solvency.

The earning volume remained steady, while key profitability indicators witnessed moderation over the year. The capital adequacy ratio, however, improved to 20.6 per cent by the end of December 2024 and remained well above the minimum regulatory requirements. Within the banking sector, Islamic banking institutions witnessed a strong increase in asset base and a marked expansion in branch network, which also reflects SBP’s focus on promoting Shariah-compliant financial services. Along with contained credit risk, the resilience of the Islamic banks remained steady in 2024. Nonetheless, microfinance banks continued to remain under stress.

The review showed that the non-bank financial sector presented a mixed performance. The balance sheet of DFIs contracted while that of NBFIs manifested a remarkable expansion. Moreover, the insurance sector continued to perform steadily. Whereas the supply side of the financial sector presented a comfortable position, the demand side was affected by the erstwhile tighter financial conditions and subdued economic activity. In particular, the sales of the non-financial large corporate sector witnessed pressure and moderation in earnings. However, the liquidity profile and repayment capacity of the sector remained comfortable. Encouragingly, though, the creditworthiness and repayment capacity of the large borrowers of the banking sector remained steady during the last year.

The digital transactions continued to drive the momentum of the retail transactions. To facilitate and support remittances from the Gulf region, SBP signed a memorandum of understanding with the Arab Monetary Fund to enable the integration of Raast with Buna, a cross-border payment system. Moreover, Raast maintained the momentum of strong growth, which particularly gained traction after the introduction of the person-to-merchant module in late 2023.

Govt tightens PIA bidding terms
The government on Thursday tightened conditions for prospective buyers of Pakistan International Airlines (PIA) to attract only financially sound parties for the second privatisation bid and also barred provincial governments from participating in the bidding.

The prospective bidders can show their interest in acquiring majority shares in PIA till June 3, said Muhammad Ali, Adviser to Prime Minister on Privatisation, while talking to journalists.

He said that the government tightened the conditions by learning lessons from the last failed privatisation attempt. It also facilitated investors by allowing them to change the lead consortium member two weeks before the bidding date.

The adviser shared details of the revised Expression of Interest (EOI) for selling 51% to 100% PIA shares along with management control. It hopes to strike a deal by the last quarter of this calendar year.

The government has set the June 3 deadline for submitting documents by prospective buyers excluding the federal and provincial governments and their entities.

However, the affiliates of federal and provincial governments that do not fall in the category of state-owned enterprises like the Fauji Foundation are eligible to participate in the bidding, said Privatisation Commission Secretary Usman Bajwa while responding to a question. Fauji Foundation's name is in circulation as one of the potential consortiums to bid for acquiring PIA.

Muhammad Ali said that the government had allowed the replacement of lead consortium members at least 15 days prior to bidding, subject to compliance with the pre-qualification criteria and the Request for Statement of Qualification instructions.

Usman Bajwa said that the minimum worth of the lead consortium member should be Rs8 billion and it would have to go through all the checks before being declared eligible to participate in the bid. The privatisation adviser said that the change in the lead consortium member would not affect the all those changes had to be approved and vetted much before the bidding date.

The government attempted to privatise PIA last year but ended up with the sole bidder that too a real estate developer, which offered Rs10 billion against the minimum price of Rs85.03 billion. This raised questions about the qualification criteria. The government has exempted 18% GST on the purchase or lease of aircraft for PIA and the negative equity can also be adjusted in light of the feedback to be received from the parties, said Ali.

The reference price would be better than the last price of Rs85.03 billion due to the improvement in balance sheet of the airline, opening of European routes and settlement of 18% GST, said the privatisation adviser.

To a question, the Privatisation Commission secretary said that according to the approved accounts, the assets and liabilities' position of PIA was more or less the same. He said that the overall balance sheet of the airline had improved because of booking the deferred tax credit of Rs30 billion this year, which was also a reason for showing profits. "One of the factors of PIA profitability is the adjustment of past tax credits at the current value of Rs30 billion," said the privatisation secretary. PIA has started breathing but it still needs money to grow and expand the 15 operational aircraft fleet, said Usman Bajwa.

The adviser clarified that no foreign government was interested in buying PIA at this stage and the government would conduct the international competitive bidding.

Ali said that financial soundness conditions had been made stringent to make sure that only financially credible companies come forward. The prospective buyer could be a scheduled airline.

In case of non-airline business bids for PIA, such enterprise must have a minimum annual revenue of Rs200 billion, or $715 million, as per the audited financials of December 2023 or later. The minimum annual revenue of Rs100 billion, or $360 million, for each year during the last three years is also required, said the adviser.

Ali said that there was a new insertion in the financial criteria for qualification related to liquidity and cash in hand. The party must have Rs28 billion, or $100 million, in cash or liquid assets, said the adviser.

According to another improved condition, the prospective buyer must be audited by an international renowned firm of chartered accountants or category 'A' or 'B' list of auditors as per SBP's panel of auditors.

Debt payments reduce reserves by $367m
Owing to external debt payments, the State Bank of Pakistan's (SBP) foreign exchange reserves fell $367 million over the week, reaching $10.21 billion as of April 18, according to data released on Thursday.

The country's total liquid foreign reserves stood at $15.44 billion, with $5.23 billion held by commercial banks.

"Earlier, on March 21, 2025, the SBP had reported a week-on-week decline of $540 million," said Arif Habib Limited Research Head Sana Tawfiq while talking to The Express Tribune.

The central bank attributed the latest drop to external debt payments, stating: "During the week ended April 18, 2025, the SBP reserves declined $367 million to $10,205.9 million due to external debt repayments."

The Pakistani rupee weakened against the US dollar on Thursday, slipping 0.04% to reach its lowest level in over a year in the inter-bank market. By the end of trading, the rupee stood at 281.07 against the dollar – a level last seen in January 2024. A day earlier, the local currency had closed at 280.97.

The dollar staged a broad retreat in the global market as investor gloom over the lack of progress towards defusing the US-China trade war reasserted itself following an interlude of optimism the previous day.

US assets, including the dollar, rallied on Wednesday after President Donald Trump backed down from threats to fire the head of the Federal Reserve and appeared to soften his stance on China.

Meanwhile, gold prices in Pakistan remained stable, mirroring the lack of movement in the international market. According to the All Pakistan Sarafa Gems and Jewellers Association (APSGJA), the price of gold per tola held steady at Rs352,000. Similarly, the price for 10 grams of gold remained unchanged at Rs301,783.

This followed Wednesday's fluctuation when gold per tola dropped Rs11,700 to Rs352,000.

On the global front, the price of gold also stayed flat, standing at $3,338 per ounce (including a $20 premium), the same as on the previous day, as per the APSGJA data.

Adnan Agar, Director at Interactive Commodities, stated that gold prices were trading within a defined range without any significant developments to prompt further movement.

"The market is currently positioned at $3,335, with a low of $3,310 and a high between $3,370 and $3,375," he said. "At the moment, there's no new trigger influencing the market direction. Any major update, particularly related to China or other significant events, would be necessary to drive further activity."

He noted that the previous session saw a low of $3,270, from which the market has rebounded.

Internationally, gold prices gained after falling more than 3% in the previous session, helped by a subdued dollar and bargain hunting, while market attention remained focused on any updates on US-China trade relations.

Spot gold rose 1% to $3,321.09 an ounce. Bullion hit a record high of $3,500.05 on Tuesday due to concerns about the US economy, but prices retreated on Wednesday after Trump backed down from threats to fire the head of the Federal Reserve and appeared to soften his stance on China.

Govt skips taxes despite Rs1.56tr hit
The government has stated that it does not plan to impose any new taxes or levies to recover a massive Rs1.56 trillion revenue shortfall, which will result from revising tariff agreements with state-owned generation companies (Gencos).

During the public hearing held on Thursday, it was informed that there would be savings of Rs1.5 trillion for consumers due to a revision in tariff for state-owned Gencos, which means that the government has to face this hit in its income.

"However, the government has no plan to impose another tax or levy to recover this amount from the public," Power Division officials said.

But they pointed out the possibility that the government was giving subsidies to the power consumers that could be reduced following the hit of Rs1.5 trillion on its income.

During the hearing, interveners appreciated the government and Power Division efforts to slash the tariff by signing deals with power plants to reduce the burden of capacity payments. The government had also shifted power plants from "take-or-pay" to "hybrid take-and-pay" to reduce the burden of capacity payments.

However, the Power Division officials ruled out a 50% reduction in capacity payments following revised deals with independent power plants and Gencos.

The interveners said that the government had cut gas supply by 220 mmcfd on the SSGC system and by 150 mmcfd on the SNGPL system.

They said that the government should mix this gas with RLNG and provide it to efficient power plants to cut electricity rates further.

It was informed that the Central Power Purchasing Agency (Guarantee) Limited (CPPA-G) had signed negotiated settlement agreements/MoUs with the government-owned plants to reduce end-consumer tariffs.

These power plants included National Power Parks Management Company – Balloki, National Power Parks Management Company – Haveli Bahadur Shah (HBS), Central Power Generation Company Limited – Guddu 747MW and National Power Generation Company Limited – Nandipur.

CPPA-G had filed a joint application before the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra) for the reduction in tariff components of these plants under the negotiated agreements. The notice of admission/hearing was published on April 18, 2025.

During the public hearing conducted on Thursday, it was highlighted that the power tariff of Gencos would be reduced up to Rs0.32 per unit.

The tariff of CPGCL's 747MW plant would be reduced by Rs0.24 per unit, NPGCL Nandipur's Rs0.32 per unit, NPPMCL Haveli Bahadur Shah's Rs0.27 and NPPMCL Balloki power project's Rs0.26 per unit.

Under the deal, the rate of return is fixed at 13% at Rs168/$, with no future indexation. The return on equity (ROE) beyond 35% shall be paid on a units-delivered basis (ie, take and pay).

The insurance component shall be as per actual or 0.9% of the EPC cost for Gencos, whichever is lower. The insurance component shall be as per actual or 0.8% of the sum insured for GPPs, whichever is lower.

Local O&M shall be indexed at 5% or the 12-month average NCPI, whichever is lower. A 30% discount shall apply to foreign O&M indexation in case of rupee devaluation against the US dollar.

In the case of rupee appreciation against the US dollar, 100% of the benefit will be passed on to consumers.

CPPA-G had requested that ROE and ROEDC shall be revised to 13% at a fixed exchange rate of Rs168/$.

The hybrid take-and-pay mechanism shall be approved, with payments beyond 35% based on units delivered. Local O&M indexation shall be allowed at the lower of 5% annually or the average annual NCPI. Foreign O&M indexation shall be allowed as per the revised mechanism.

Indexation shall be the lower of 5% per annum or the average NCPI for the preceding 12 months. Indexation shall follow the existing mechanism; however, PKR/USD depreciation shall only be allowed up to 70% of actual depreciation per annum. Any appreciation shall be fully passed on to consumers.

The maximum limit of the insurance component shall be capped at 0.9% of the allowed EPC cost for Nandipur and Guddu 747MW and 0.8% of the sum insured for Balloki and HBS.

The foreign component of ROE and ROEDC shall be recomputed at a 13% return using a fixed exchange rate of Rs168/USD. No further exchange rate indexation shall apply.

Plants will receive 35% of ROE and ROEDC as part of the capacity payment. If the actual Net Electrical Output (NEO) exceeds 35% of the contracted capacity in terms of kWh, the plants will receive additional ROE and ROEDC based on the excess NEO.

In a statement, NEPRA has decided to discontinue dollar-based indexations for the plants, transitioning instead to rupee-based indexations fixed for the entire useful life of the power projects. This strategic revision aims to curb foreign exchange exposure and reduce tariff volatility for consumers.

The hearing, attended by sector professionals and members of the public, was met with wide appreciation. Citizens commended the authority's commitment to fiscal responsibility and its proactive role in ensuring a sustainable and consumer-friendly power sector.

Nepra remains steadfast in its mission to implement reforms that ensure transparency, efficiency, and affordability in the power sector.

Refineries asked to ensure ample availability of HSD, jet fuel for defence
Amid escalating tensions between the two nuclear states in the wake of Pahalgam attack, the federal government has asked the country’s refineries to enhance production of high speed diesel (HSD) and JP-8 for the armed forces in case India launches an attack.

The oil marketing companies (OMCs), including state-owned Pakistan State Oil (PSO), have also been directed to import petroleum products on time.

HSD is used when the army goes for troops mobilisation with tanks and other equipment to border areas while the Pakistan Air Force uses the JP-8 as fuel. Right now, Pakistan Army, Pakistan Air Force (PAF) and Pakistan Naval Force are on a high alert.

According to the letter, written on April 23, 2025 by director general (DG) Oil on emergency basis to the top management of all the five refineries -- Pakistan Refinery Company (PARCO) Limited, Attock Refinery Limited (ARL), National Refinery Limited (NRL), Pakistan Refinery Limited (PRL) and Cnergyico Pk Limited (CPL), Oil Companies Advisory Council (OCAC) secretary general and Oil Marketing Association of Pakistan (OMAP) chairman, it has been asked to ensure maximum availability of HSD and JP-8.

The OMCs have also been asked to ensure timely import of required petroleum products. It has also been asked to enhance the security of the key point installations such as oil depots situated in various parts of the country as per the set standard operating procedures (SOPs).

Attock Refinery Limited Managing Director Adil Khattak and the OCAC chairman, while representing local refineries and OMCs, said the country had stock of enough required fuel to cater to the needs of armed forces.

Ministers assure exporters of addressing concerns
Federal Minister for Planning, Development and Special Initiatives Ahsan Iqbal and Federal Minister for Defence Khawaja Muhammad Asif have pledged to take up at the highest government level the critical challenges being faced by exporters.

Speaking at an exporters' convention, hosted by the Pakistan Readymade Garments Manufacturers and Exporters Association (PRGMEA) in Sialkot, both ministers assured the industry of their unwavering support.

Ahsan Iqbal acknowledged that Pakistan's exports, which currently stand at around $32 billion, were lagging behind regional competitors such as Bangladesh, India and Vietnam. "We need a unified, export-led growth strategy. Cities like Sialkot, with their entrepreneurial spirit and globally recognised products, must take the lead," he said.

Khawaja Muhammad Asif noted that abrupt policy changes and the increase in tax burden were harming productivity. "Sialkot's SMEs (small and medium enterprises) form the backbone of Pakistan's export economy. We will not allow them to collapse under bureaucratic pressure," he said.

He assured the exporters that refund claims and other tax-related issues would be addressed at the highest level to create a stable and supportive environment.

Speaking at the event, former PRGMEA central chairman Ijaz A Khokhar voiced concern over the recent amendments to the Export Facilitation Scheme, especially regarding temporary imports for re-export. He warned that reduced utilisation periods and new bank guarantees would disproportionately impact the SMEs, which already operate on tight margins. "Such policy shifts jeopardise not only our competitiveness but also the foundation of Pakistan's export engine," he said.

Cement body files appeal against Rs6.35b penalty
The All Pakistan Cement Manufacturers Association (APCMA) has filed an appeal with the Competition Appellate Tribunal, seeking the cancellation of Rs6.35 billion penalty imposed by the Competition Commission of Pakistan (CCP) on the APCMA and cement companies in a case pertaining to alleged price fixing and collusion.

The tribunal heard the case on Thursday, where Rashid Anwar, the counsel representing the APCMA, presented his arguments and dismissed the allegations.

He emphasised that there was a competitive landscape within the cement sector, characterised by differing prices. He described the CCP's decision against cement companies as unjust and pointed out that the commission had also imposed a notable fine on cement firms in 2009, when they were incurring losses.

Anwar argued that the CCP did not conduct a proper geographical analysis of the companies and the quota-sharing agreement between the companies had been signed in 2003 for two years only, which expired by the time the commission's decision came.

He contended that the CCP did not have reasonable grounds to raid the offices of the APCMA and its member companies. He requested the tribunal to invalidate the CCP decision.

The tribunal adjourned the hearing until May 22 following the conclusion of APCMA counsel's arguments. At the next hearing, the counsel representing different cement firms will put forth their arguments. Once they conclude, the CCP's legal representatives will defend the commission's ruling.

Earlier, the CCP had found evidence of agreements and collusion concerning the cement price determination and involving the APCMA. Following a comprehensive probe, the CCP slapped a fine of Rs6.35 billion on 20 cement manufacturers and the APCMA.

Pakistan misses wheat production target
The country has missed the wheat production target as the estimated production of the commodity is 28.42 million tons from an area of 9.1 million hectares against the set target of 33.58 million for the Rabi Season 2024-2025 from an area of 10.368 million hectares of land.

According to provincial governments’ reports, shared during the Federal Committee on Agriculture (FCA) meeting presided over by Federal Minister for National Food Security and Research (MNFS&R) Rana Tanveer Hussain, wheat production for 2024-25 is estimated at 28.42 million tons from an area of 9.1 million hectares; the decrease in production is 10 per cent over the last year.

The FCA during its previous meeting held on November 2024 fixed a wheat crop production target at 33.58 million tons for the Rabi Season 2024-2025 from an area of 10.368 million hectares of land.

‘Urgent wheat imports may be needed to save from food crisis’

The meeting was also informed that onion production for 2024-25 is estimated at 2.7 million tons from an area of 0.17 million hectares, the increase in production is 15.7 per cent, whereas, area decreased 17.3 per cent over the last year. Similarly, tomato production for 2024-25 is estimated 654,000 tons from an area of 53,000 hectares. The increase in production is 8.8 per cent, whereas, the area increased by 4.8 per cent over the last year. The potato production for 2024-25 is estimated 654,000 tons from an area of 53,000 hectares; the increase in production is 8.8 per cent. The FCA reviewed the performance of Rabi crops (2024-25) and fixed targets for the Kharif season 2025-26.

The FCA fixed a production target of cotton 10.18 million bales from area of 2.2 million hecatres. It also fixed a rice production target of 9.17 million tons from over three million hectares of land.

The FCA also fixed the production target of sugarcane for the year 2026-25 at 80.3 million tons over an area of 1.1 million hectares. The committee fixed maize production target at 9.7 million tons production from an area over 1.5 million hectares of land. The targets of other crops including mung, maash, and chillies were also fixed by FCA. The senior officials of the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) said that during January to April 2025, 39 per cent below average precipitation was recorded. Also, 60 per cent below average precipitation recorded in April with extremely drier conditions over southern half (Sindh and Balochistan).

Overall, the temperature may remain above normal in most parts of the country during January to April, 2025, he said, adding that during May to July, 2025, above normal precipitation is likely over most parts of the country except May.

He said that temperature is expected to remain above normal in most parts of the country during the next three months, except July.

The meeting was attended by the representatives of provincial agriculture departments, IRSA, PMD, State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), Zarai Taraqiati Bank Ltd (ZTBL), National Fertiliser Development Centre (NFDC), Agriculture Policy Institute (API), Federal Seed Certification and Registration Department, Department of Plant Protection (DPP), Federal Water Management, Pakistan Oil Seed Board, Pakistan Agriculture Storage and Services Cooperation, senior official of the MNFS&R, and chairman Pakistan Agricultural Research Council (PARC).

India water move threatens Pakistan farms: report
India’s unprecedented move to suspend a water-sharing pact in response to a gun attack in Kashmir earlier this week threatens to hurt crops and power generation in Pakistan, just as temperatures begin to rise sharply in the pre-monsoon summer, reports Bloomberg.

Disruption is unlikely to be swift, agricultural and diplomatic experts said, pointing out India does not currently have the capacity to divert large volumes of water. Pakistan has also disputed the decision -- a rare effort to use Himalayan water resources to exercise diplomatic pressure -- arguing the 1960 treaty excludes the option of a unilateral change.

“There is a protocol in the treaty, an arbitration code, and there are guarantors” like the World Bank and the UN that mediate any issue between the two countries, said Syed Imran Ahmed, director at Panjwani Hisaar Water Institute in Karachi.

But the impact on one of the largest irrigation systems in the world could still be significant. Any disruption to the flow of water, and even its timing, could upset planting schedules in Pakistan’s agriculture sector, which accounts for a quarter of GDP and employs nearly 40 per cent of its people. The country also gets a third of its electricity from hydropower.

India’s move also comes as the region moves into what is forecast to be a sweltering summer. The southern part of Pakistan is already experiencing higher-than-normal temperatures -- hitting 41C (105F) in the port city of Karachi this week -- and hot and dry conditions are expected to persist for days, according to the country’s meteorological department.

“This is a larger political statement by India. Much would depend on how Pakistan responds to it,” said D Suba Chandran, a professor at India’s National Institute of Advanced Studies. “If India has to divert the water, India will have to invest in building dams, invest in building canals with an objective to divert the water. That will not take place immediately.” Still, the system was never built to be switched on and off at will, Hassaan F Khan, an assistant professor of Urban and Environmental Policy and Environment Studies at Tufts University, wrote in Pakistan’s Dawn newspaper.

“The flows of the Indus, Jhelum and Chenab are the backbone of our agriculture, our cities, our energy system. At this moment, we simply do not have a substitute for these waters.”

The Indus Waters deal gives New Delhi control of the Indus basin’s three eastern rivers, while downstream Islamabad controls the three western ones. Both countries are obligated to allow each other to use a portion of their waters and build infrastructure under certain conditions. India has previously called for a renegotiation of the treaty, arguing that Pakistan currently enjoys use of up to 80 per cent of the basin’s water.

Until now, the pact has withstood decades of animosity -- including three wars -- between the nuclear rivals. It has been wielded by India as a threat in the past, though, including in 2016, after an attack on an Indian army base in Kashmir.

At the time, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi threatened to restrict water under upstream India’s control, saying “blood and water cannot flow together”. He did not follow through. “India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty marks a dangerous escalation & an attempt to turn a lifeline into leverage,” Pakistani politician Umar Rehman Malik said on X. “Breaching it is not just a violation, but it is a hostile act that threatens regional stability and sets a perilous precedent.”

Pakistan closes airspace to Indian aircraft
Pakistan Civil Aviation Authority (PCAA) has immediately closed Pakistan’s airspace for Indian aircraft soon after the NSC decision.

“Pakistan airspace not available for Indian registered aircraft and operated/ owned and leased by the Indian Airlines including military flights,” read a message on the Notices for Airmen (NOTAMS) on PCAA official website.

According to NOTAMS, the directives will be effective initially for one month starting from 1230 hours on April 24, 2025 to 2359 Hours on May 23, 2025.

According to aviation experts, the closure of airspace could cost Indian carriers up to $500 million within a month. Senior aviation journalist Tahir Imran Mian said that on the day the airspace was sealed, around 50 Indian flights were either transiting or scheduled to transit through Pakistan.

On an average, 200 to 300 Indian flights use Pakistan’s airspace daily. The affected carriers include Air India, Air India Express, IndiGo, SpiceJet and Akasa Air, which operate between 70 to 80 round-trip international flights through Pakistani airspace every day. These flights originate from key Indian cities such as Mumbai, New Delhi, Ahmedabad, Lucknow and Goa.

The closure is expected to add approximately two hours of additional travel time per flight, significantly increasing fuel consumption and operational costs.

Defence minister warns if Pakistanis attacked, Indian citizens won’t remain safe either: Pakistan hits back at India as war clouds loom over subcontinent
Pakistan on Thursday announced to suspend trade cooperation with India, close Wagah Border crossing, downgrade diplomatic ties and warned of holding all bilateral accords in abeyance, calling any attempt to usurp its water rights as an “act of war”.

The decisions were taken in the meeting of the National Security Committee (NSC) chaired by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.

The meeting discussed the national security environment and the regional situation, particularly in the wake of Pahalgam attack in the Anantnag District of Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJK) on April 22.

The committee expressed concern over the loss of tourists’ lives, reviewed the Indian measures announced on April 23, and termed them “unilateral, unjust, politically motivated, extremely irresponsible and devoid of legal merit.”

Rejecting the Indian announcement to hold the binding Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance, the top security body observed that water was a “vital national interest” of Pakistan, and a lifeline for its 240 million people which would be safeguarded at all costs.

“Any attempt to stop or divert the flow of water belonging to Pakistan as per the Indus Waters Treaty, and the usurpation of the rights of lower riparian, will be considered as an Act of War and responded with full force across the complete spectrum of National Power,” the committee declared.

It said that noting the reckless and irresponsible behaviour of India in total disregard of international conventions, UN Security Council Resolutions and international obligations at will, “Pakistan shall exercise the right to hold all bilateral agreements with India including but not limited to Simla Agreement in abeyance, till India desists from its manifested behaviour of fomenting terrorism inside Pakistan; trans-national killings; and non-adherence to international law and UN Resolutions on Kashmir.”

The committee decided that Pakistan would close down the Wagah Border Post, with immediate effect suspending all cross-border transit from India through this route without exception. However, those who have crossed with valid endorsements may return through that route immediately but not later than April 30, 2025.

Pakistan announced the suspension of all visas under the Saarc Visa Exemption Scheme (SVES) issued to Indian nationals and deemed them cancelled with immediate effect, with the exception of Sikh religious pilgrims.

The Indian nationals currently in Pakistan under SVES have been asked to exit within 48 hours, excluding Sikh pilgrims.

Pakistan declared the Indian Defence, Naval and Air Advisors in Islamabad persona non grata, directing them to leave Pakistan immediately but not later than April 30, 2025. Annulling the said posts in the Indian High Commission, the support staff of these advisers have also been directed to return to India.

Pakistan also announced to reduce the strength of Indian High Commission in Islamabad to 30 diplomats and staff members, with effect from end of this April.

“Pakistan’s airspace will be closed with immediate effect for all Indian owned or Indian operated airlines. All trade with India including to and from any third country through Pakistan, is suspended forthwith,” the committee decided.

The security body underscored that Pakistan and its armed forces remained fully capable and prepared to defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity against any misadventure, as clearly demonstrated by its measured yet resolute response to India’s reckless incursion in February 2019.

“India’s belligerent measures have vindicated the Two-Nation Theory as well as the apprehensions of Quaid-i-Azam Muhammad Ali Jinnah, as encapsulated in the 1940 Pakistan Resolution, which continues to echo the sentiments of the complete Pakistani nation. The Pakistani nation remains committed to peace, but will never allow anyone to transgress its sovereignty, security, dignity and their inalienable rights.”

The NSC observed that Kashmir remained an unresolved dispute between Pakistan and India as recognised through multiple UN resolutions. “Pakistan continues to support the right of self-determination of the Kashmiri people. The continued Indian state oppression, abrogation of statehood, political and demographic gerrymandering, has persistently led to an organic backlash from the people of IIOJK, which perpetuates cycles of violence,” it said.

The participants believed that India’s systemic persecution of minorities, particularly Muslims, had become more pervasive with attempts at forced passage of Waqf Bill, the latest one to marginalise Muslims across India. “India must resist the temptation to exploit such tragic incidents to its advantage and take full responsibility for its failure to provide security to the people.”

The committee unequivocally condemned terrorism in all its forms and manifestations and that Pakistan was the world’s front-line state against terrorism, having suffered immense human and economic losses. “Indian attempts to inject volatility in the environment along Pakistan’s eastern borders is aimed at distracting Pakistan’s counter-terrorism efforts. In the absence of any credible investigation and verifiable evidence, attempts to link the Pahalgam attack with Pakistan are frivolous, devoid of rationality and defeat logic,” the committee said.

The NSC said that India’s worn-out narrative of victimhood could not obfuscate its own culpability in fomenting terrorism on Pakistan’s soil, nor could it distract attention from its systematic and state sponsored oppression and human rights violations in the IIOJK.

“Contrary to Indian claims, Pakistan has in its custody incontrovertible proof of Indian-sponsored terrorism in Pakistan, including the confession of a serving Indian Navy officer, Commander Kulbhushan Jadhav, who remains a living testament to India’s state-sponsored terrorist activities.”

The forum deplored the implicit threat contained in the Indian statement of April 23 and urged the international community to remain mindful of India’s state sponsored extraterritorial assassinations or attempts on foreign soil.

It said that Pakistan had recently exposed such Indian heinous acts along-with various other states with undeniable evidence. Pakistan will pursue all those responsible, planners and perpetrators alike and ensure that justice is served. Any threat to Pakistan’s sovereignty and to the security of its people will be met with firm reciprocal measures in all domains, the NSC resolved.

The top security body asked India to refrain from its reflexive blame game and cynical staged managed exploitation of incidents like Pahalgam to further its narrow political agenda which served only to inflame tensions and obstruct the path to peace and stability in the region. Extremely irresponsible warmongering Indian state-controlled media, fueling volatility in the regional calculus is reprehensive, which requires serious introspection, it added.

The deputy prime minister, who is also the foreign minister, ministers for defence, information and broadcasting, interior, special assistant to PM on foreign affairs, Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee, three services chiefs and heads of Intelligence agencies also attended the meeting.

Meanwhile, Minister for Defence Khawaja Asif categorically said that any terrorist attack on Indian soil was always sponsored by India itself to achieve its ulterior motives.

Addressing a news conference with Deputy Prime Minister Mohammad Ishaq Dar, Federal Minister for Information and Broadcasting Attaullah Tarar and Federal Minister for Law and Justice Azam Tarar, the defence minister said that when Pulwama incident occurred, the then Indian government subsequently revoked Article 370 in Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJK).

He said that India had been the sponsor of terrorist activities in the region, adding that India had deputed 0.9 million armed troops in the IIOJK to suppress the voice of innocent Kashmiris people. The minister questioned how Pahalgam incident occurred and stated that, following the attack, India suspended the Indus Waters Treaty which is tantamount to a clear violation of international law. He said that Pakistan has always been ready to give a befitting response to Indian aggression and adventurism, without yielding to international pressure.

He said that following the Pulwama incident, India violated Pakistan’s airspace, prompting Pakistan’s valiant armed forces to shoot down their two fighter jets. “Pakistan is fully capable of giving a befitting reply to India if it violates the country’s soil or airspace again and Pakistan armed forces and people will protect every inch of its motherland and teach an exemplary lesson to India,” he vowed.

He went on to say that Pakistan is a responsible sovereign state that does not engage in terrorism anywhere in the world. “India is responsible for terrorist incidents within Pakistan, including those in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa,” he added.

The minister reiterated that India was behind terrorist attacks in Pakistan and Kulbhushan Jadhav was an ample proof of it, who confessed that he was involved in terrorist incidents and killing of innocent citizens in Pakistan. He said that India was also supporting Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) and Tehreek Taliban Pakistan (TTP) as both banned organisations’ chiefs were stationed in India.

Khawaja Asif said that Canada and the United Kingdom (UK) had exposed India as a terrorist state internationally.

Responding to a question regarding Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the minister said that Modi was involved in killing innocent Muslims in Gujarat and the IIOJK and he was considered a terrorist. The defence minister said that “a certified terrorist ruler” like Modi was not in power in any country of the world.

Asif also revealed that India was planning to carry out terror incidents in Pakistani cities. “If our citizens are attacked, then Indian citizens will not remain safe,” he warned. He reiterated that Pakistan would not allow anybody to carry out terrorist attack or violate its airspace and would protect its soils at all costs.

On the occasion, Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar urged India to share evidence with the global community if Pakistan was involved in the Pahalgam attack.

Dar said Pakistan has evidence and intelligence that some foreigners had arrived in Srinagar with weapons. “Indian intelligence agencies have kept these people in Srinagar,” he added. The foreign minister said the Indian spy agencies were supporting the foreigners who “are trying to export IEDs (improvised explosive devices)”.

The FM added Pakistan’s armed forces were ready to respond to any Indian aggression.

Recalling the capture of an Indian pilot by Pakistan in 2019, Dar said India will be given a befitting response if it resorts to any misadventure. He also warned that Pakistan would respond in kind if India withdrew security from Pakistan’s embassy in New Delhi.

The deputy premier warned that Pakistan has the option to suspend the Shimla agreement in response to India’s unilateral move against the Indus Waters Treaty. “We will take our friends in confidence. Pakistan is fully prepared,” he reiterated, adding that the World Bank will also be apprised of India’s announcement.

He said the decisions taken by the NSC will be handed over to the Indian envoy as a demarche. On the occasion, Minister for Information and Broadcasting Attaullah Tarar said the unilateral action of India to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty had no legal justification, which denotes its disregard and ignorance of trans-boundary accord. “The statement from India about the suspension of Indus Waters Treaty is childish and highly non-serious, which shows that they neither read the Indus Waters Treaty nor ever tried to fathom its legal standing,” the minister said.

He said Pakistan had given an appropriate response to India’s hollow and shaky threats. He said bilateral trade with India was out of the question, and through any third country, it has also been suspended today. He said that Pakistan’s airspace had been closed to India, which would eventually cause millions of dollars in losses to Indian airlines.

The minister paid tribute to Pakistani journalists who effectively pleaded the country’s case in the Indian media. He said the entire world knew that India sponsored terrorism in Pakistan and this had been its tactic for political gain.

Meanwhile, Foreign Secretary Amna Baloch briefed a group of Islamabad-based heads of missions and diplomats on the evolving situation following the Pahalgam attack in the IIOJK.

The foreign secretary shared the outcomes of the NSC meeting. She rejected Indian misinformation campaign against Pakistan and said that such tactics would obstruct the path to peace and stability in the region.

Baloch underscored that Pakistan has always rejected terrorism in all its forms and manifestations. She also cautioned against Indian attempts to escalate tensions and reaffirmed Pakistan’s readiness to counter any misadventure.

Meanwhile, India has summoned the top diplomat in the Pakistan High Commission in New Delhi, local media reported, to give notice that all defence advisers in the Pakistani mission were persona non grata and given a week to leave, one of the measures Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri announced on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, Pakistan Rangers captured a soldier of the Indian Border Security Force in Punjab, according to reports in Indian media. The Indian soldier reportedly strayed into the Pakistani territory when he was arrested.

According to Indian media, the trooper was captured in the Ferozepur area and was identified as Constable P K Singh of the 182nd battalion of the BSF. “During the routine movement, Singh inadvertently moved beyond the Indian border fence and entered the Pakistani territory, where the Pakistan Rangers detained him across the Ferozepur border,” said India Today.

Meanwhile, Pakistani citizens representing a diverse spectrum of religious and political affiliations alongside civil society activists, staged a protest in front of the Indian Embassy.

The demonstration served as a powerful denunciation of what protestors decried as escalating conspiracies orchestrated by India and its government against Pakistan, beleaguered Kashmiri populace and marginalised Muslim community within India.

A significant contingent of police and law enforcement agencies was deployed to ensure the sanctity of the Diplomatic Enclave.

The speakers urged New Delhi to immediately cease all hostile activities directed towards Pakistan, cautioning that any such aggression would be met with a resolute and befitting response from Islamabad.

Following an hour of orderly demonstration, the protestors dispersed peacefully.

Meanwhile, the National Assembly Standing Committee on Defence condemned the loss of lives in Pahalgam incident and categorically rejected the unfounded allegations levelled by India against Pakistan.

The committee expressed deep concern over the actions taken by the Indian government, including unilateral suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, the closing of Attari border and the withdrawal of diplomats, and noted that such measures risk escalating tensions between the two nuclear nations.

The committee, which met with Fatehullah Khan, MNA, in the chair, emphasised that Pakistan has been a victim of terrorism and that its government and Armed Forces have consistently demonstrated a responsible approach to maintaining peace. However, the panel reiterated, in case if the Indian side engages in any unwarranted action, an appropriate response will be necessary.

The committee also offered Fateha and Dua for the departed souls of the mother and sister-in-law of Chief of Army Staff General Syed Asim Munir.

Members of the Standing Committee also considered “The Pakistan Navy (Amendment) Bill 2024.” During the course of deliberations, the ministry apprised committee members about the key features of the proposed Bill, which mainly focuses on welfare activities, electronic crimes and procedural updates. The committee urged all the provinces to avail the services of SOP in order to safeguard classified information for the betterment of the nation.

The meeting was attended by MNAs Aqeel Malik, Ibrar Ahmad, Saba Sadiq, Ispandyar M Bandara, Salahuddin Junejo, Sanjay Parwani, Gul Asghar Khan, Pullain Baloch, Aslam Ghumman, Ghulam Muhammad and Parliamentary Secretary on Defence Zeb Jaffar.

Besides, the parliamentarians, the meeting was attended by Defence Secretary Lt Gen (retd) Muhammad Ali, Additional Secretary (Army) Major General Amir Ishfaq Kiani and other senior officers of the Ministry of Defence, Law and Justice and the provincial governments.

Meanwhile Istehkam-e-Pakistan Party President and Federal Minister for Communications Abdul Aleem Khan said that Pakistan has given a strong and effective response to India’s unilateral provocations. He emphasized that India must not remain under any false assumptions as Pakistan’s Armed Forces are always ready to deliver a decisive blow to any aggression, said a press release.

Meanwhile, Adviser to the Prime Minister on Interior Affairs Pervez Khattak condemned India’s decision to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty. Speaking to reporters in Nowshera, he described the move as a clear reflection of India’s malicious intentions. He said the suspension of the internationally recognised agreement was both lamentable and a blatant violation of United Nations protocols and international law.

The United Nations on Thursday urged India and Pakistan to exercise “maximum restraint.”

Spokesperson Stephane Dujarric said, “Any issues between Pakistan and India, we believe can be and should be resolved peacefully through meaningful mutual engagement. ”

Dujarric said Secretary-General Antonio Guterres “has not had any direct contact” with those governments in the past 24 hours, but is “following the situation very closely and with very great concern.”

 “We were very clear in our condemnation of the terror attack that occurred in Jammu and Kashmir on the 22nd, which killed a large number of civilians,” Dujarric said at a news conference, as he encouraged both governments to “exercise maximum restraint and to ensure that the situation and the developments we’ve seen do not deteriorate any further.”