Oil & Gas Development Company (OGDC), being state-owned with 85% govt ownership, is the largest E&P company in Pakistan. Company’s revenue mix comprises of 56%/47%/10% Gas/Oil/LPG, where-in estimated total production life currently stands at a little over ~14 years. Our investment thesis for growth is anchored upon the following key drivers; i) markedly improved cashflows over the past twelve months, reflected in higher payouts and accelerated E&P operations, ii) significant stake in Reko Diq (8.33%) to yield results post FY27, and iii) potential for sizeable wild-cat discovery in Abu Dhabi offshore block-5 in the upcoming year, iv) strong 2P reserve position and substantial recoverable reserve life. In summary, we have a Dec’25 target price of PkR355/sh on the stock, which offers a 68.11% upside from current levels. Additionally, OGDC’s 2P reserves stand at 721mn boe (Oil 125; Gas 596), translating into an indicative reserve value of PkR460/share. Path to circular debt res...
man thats huge O.O
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