Universe earnings down 41%YoY in 4QFY25: We expect earnings for AKD power universe to decline by 41%YoY during 4QFY25, on the back of i) lower topline following the termination/renegotiation of the PPAs, ii) decline in HUBC share-of-profits due to one-gains in SPLY, and iii) reduction in late-payment income due to LPS write-offs. However, lower financial charges are anticipated to provide some respite, primarily due to HUBC’s sharp decline in ST borrowings (down 66%YoY). For the full year, universe earnings for FY25 are expected to drop by 40%YoY due to the aforementioned reasons as well. Topline to remain subdued due to PPA setbacks: Consolidated revenue for the AKD power universe is anticipated to clock in at PkR17.9bn (down 56%YoY), primarily driven by the termination of the HUBC’s base-plant PPA effective Oct’24, alongside downward renegotiation of Nishat Power Ltd (NPL) and Narowal Energy Ltd’s (NEL) tariff, reducing the minimum availability factor to 35% effective Nov’24. Further...
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