Earnings to increase by 31%YoY 4QFY25E: We expect AKD Cement Universe profitability to increase by 31%YoY to PkR19.8bn in 4QFY25E, compared to PkR15.1bn in SPLY. Topline is expected to improve by 7%YoY to PkR115bn, driven by 17%YoY increase in avg. domestic cement prices and a 2%YoY rise in total offtakes, though partially offset by a higher export proportion in sales mix, rising to 23% from 21% in SPLY. Additionally, gross margins are expected to improve by 4.1ppts to 34.0%, primarily due to i) higher retention prices, ii) declining coal prices, and iii) lower grid electricity rates. Declining finance cost to uplift FCCL/MLCF earnings: We expect FCCL, MLCF, CHCC, KOHC and PIOC to post earnings growth of 2.8x/72%/2.2x/5.0%/0.6% YoY during 4QFY25, reaching PkR1.4/2.5/9.5/13.6/6.0 per share, respectively. Meanwhile, DGKC is projected to report a turnaround with earnings of PkR1.9bn (EPS: PkR4.4) in 4QFY25, compared to a loss of PkR1.7bn (LPS: PkR3.9) in SPLY. This recovery is suppo...
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